Nors premjeras Gintautas Paluckas ramina žmones, kad Lietuva yra saugiausioje situacijoje, tačiau realybėje kyla klausimas, kuo Lietuva dabar išvis gali pasitikėti, nes stoti į konfrontaciją su Rusija Europa nepajėgi, o amerikiečiai galbūt jau nebenori.
Daugiau apie tai – TV3 Žiniose.
Prieš 9-erius metus Vilniuje atsirado besibučiuojančių Donaldo Trumpo ir Vladimiro Putino piešinys. Ir nors jo jau seniai nebėra, bet iš dabartinių įvykių panašu, kad D. Trumpas V. Putinui iš tiesų gali įsisiurbti į lūpas. Kalbos apie galimą paliaubų Ukrainoje planą mūsų politikams ir ekspertams reiškia vieną – V. Putinas tik padarys pauzę savo imperinių užmačių vykdyme.
„Jis buvo pakankamas de... beprotis, kad užpultų Ukrainą. Tai kodėl jam nepabūti dar vieną kartą bepročiu?“ – klausė atsargos karininkas Vaidotas Malinionis.
Rusijos karinės išlaidos – didžiausios
O bepročiu V. Putinas ir nori, ir gali būti. Rusijos gynybos pramonė sukasi pilnu režimu, o visuomenė ir mobilizuota, ir praplautomis smegenimis, kalbomis apie karą su NATO. Ne vienos šalies žvalgyba praneša, kad Ukrainoje patirtus praradimus rusai gali atstatyti gana greitai.
„Sena patarlė yra, kad nori taikos – ruoškis karui. O karas dabar yra labai realus. 5 metų perspektyvoje, jis kaip niekada yra realus, ir aš manyčiau, mes dabar gyvename tikrai pačioje pavojingiausioje aplinkoje nuo pokario laikotarpio“, – tikino V. Malinionis.
Realybė tokia, kad pavargusi mokėti už Europos saugumą, Amerika tvarko reikalus žemyne be pačių europiečių. Jiems tik garsiai priekaištauja, kad yra apsileidę.
„Galime kalbėti ką norime apie vertybes. Vertybės yra svarbu, bet negali šaudyti vertybėmis. Negali šaudyti vėliavomis ir negali šaudyti stipriomis kalbomis. Nėra pakaitalo kietai jėgai“, – pabrėžė JAV Gynybos sekretorius Pete’as Hegseth’as.
Tad kaupiantis tamsiems debesims danguje, kyla klausimas, kuo gali kliautis Lietuva, jeigu prireiktų? Ar Europa nusivylusia Amerika, ar be Amerikos mažai ką galinčia Europa?
„Jeigu tos nepalankios paliaubos nusistovės, rusai bus laimėję politinę pergalę ir karinę pergalę paskelbs, tada daug kas, turbūt, ir Lietuvoje, ir Vakaruose, sau pasakys, kad nebereikia gynybai pinigų. Nebereikia investicijų į gynybą ir tai, manau, bus labai neteisinga“, – prognozavo buvęs Krašto apsaugos ministras Laurynas Kasčiūnas.
Nors pastaruoju metu Europa padidino išlaidas gynybai, bet situacija vis dar prasta. Štai Rusija pernai savo karo mašinai skyrė beveik 140 mlrd. eurų. Europos šalys kelis kartus daugiau – virš 400 milijardų. Tačiau Tarptautinis strateginių studijų institutas palygino šias sumas pagal perkamąją galią. Kitaip tariant, ką už tuos pinigus Europa ir Rusija gali įsigyti. Ir padarė baugią išvadą, kad Rusijos karinės išlaidos didesnės nei visų Europos šalių.
„Labai svarbu imtis daugiau atsakomybės dėl savo gynybos, kai vidutiniškai ES valstybės išleidžia savo gynybai vos 1,9 procentus BVP. Tikiuosi, kad NATO viršūnių susitikime Hagoje mes pajėgsime pakelti tą finansavimo lygį iki 3 procentų“, – tvirtino prezidentas Gitanas Nausėda.
„Iš tikrųjų, situacija yra sudėtinga, nes JAV vienašališkos pastangos mėginti spręsti klausimą tiesiogiai su Rusija ir su Kinija iš dalies, palieka Europą nuošalyje. Kita vertus, reikia sau užduoti klausimą, ar mes to nenusipelnėme, būdami ištižę, nesugebėdami priimti sprendimų, ne tik tvirtų politinių, bet ir gyvybiškai svarbių dėl gynybos finansavimo. Todėl tai vertinčiau kaip gerą spyrį į užpakalį Europai, ir tikiuosi, kad Europa atsibus“, – rėžė premjeras Gintautas Paluckas.
Rusijos grėsmę dar vis mato ne visi
Praėjusią savaitę nemažai apkalbų sukėlė G. Palucko pasakymas, kad esame saugiausioje situacijoje, o visuomenei panikuoti nereikia.
„Iš tikrųjų, Lietuva niekada nebuvo pasiruošusi geriau, nei dabar ir atitinkamai daromi dar didesni ir svarbesni žingsniai, jog mūsų pasiruošimas, gynybos sektoriaus pasiruošimas, kariuomenės pasiruošimas ir būtų pats didžiausias atgrasantis faktorius, kad niekas niekada nemėgintų mums kažkuo grasinti“, – teigė G. Paluckas.
Agentūra „Reuters“ paskelbė skandalingą žinią, kad Vokietijos karinis pajėgumas netgi mažėja. Iki Rusijos invazijos 2022-aisiais, vokiečių kariuomenės pasirengimas kovoti buvo vertinamas 65 procentais. Bet šiandien šis rodiklis sumažėjęs iki 50-ies procentų.
„Dabar tas JAV atvirumas, galbūt jis ir į naudą bus, tai įneš tam tikrą... Jeigu Rusijos grėsmių vertinimo nepakanka, Rusijos agresijos, gal dar JAV spyris padės susizgribti, nes Europa potencialą turi gynybinį“, – pabrėžė V. Malinionis.
Panašu, kad rimčiau į Rusijos grėsmę žvelgia tik Baltijos šalys, Skandinavija ir Lenkija. Nors Lenkijos ekonomika pagal dydį nepatenka net į Europos penketuką, bet šindien būtent Lenkija turi didžiausią kariuomenę Europoje ir trečią pagal dydį visame NATO aljanse. Daugiau karių turi tik Turkija ir Jungtinės Valstijos.
„Žiūrėkit, prieš mus jau seniai kariaujama. Ir ne konvencinis karas vyksta, hibridinis karas. Jeigu kabeliai nutraukinėjami 4 vienas po kito Baltijos jūroje, tai čia ne karas? Hibridinės atakos, propaganda ką daro, mūsų dalį visuomenės yra suklaidinę priešo propaganda. Prieš mus jau seniai kariaujama“, – tikino V. Malinionis.
Tiesa, tiek ekspertai, tiek politikai aiškiai sako, kad žmonėms panikuoti dėl prastėjančios saugumo situacijos nereikia. Tiesiog būtina suprasti kylančias rizikas ir būti kuo geriau joms pasiruošus.
Daugiau apie tai – aukščiau esančiame vaizdo įraše.
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